Opinion Markets vs prediction markets

“Prediction market” is the common industry term. Polynion uses Opinion Market as the product term because the user experience starts with a view: what do you think will happen?

The shared idea

Both prediction markets and Opinion Markets let people trade exposure to outcomes. Prices can act like probability-like signals because traders are putting value behind a view.

The Polynion framing

Polynion focuses on a cleaner path for casual users:

• choose YES or NO;
• review an instant quote;
• buy or sell outcome shares;
• hold or exit;
• redeem winning shares after resolution.

What not to assume

A price is not a guarantee. A 70% style signal does not mean the outcome must happen. It means the market state currently prices that side higher than the other side.